Predicting the Timeline for Earth Achieving Kardashev Scale Type 1 Status

Abstract

The Kardashev Scale is a method of measuring a civilization’s level of technological advancement based on the amount of energy they are able to use.Kardashev’s idea of classifying civilizations according to their ability to harness energy came up when he analysed how powerful an extra-terrestrial radio signal would have to be in order to be detected by conventional radio astronomical techniques. The numbers he came up with were quite high, and this furnished the basis of his tripartite division of civilizations into Type I, II, and III. Further scientists like Carl Sagan worked on finding out where exactly the earth stood in terms of usage of energy on the Kardashev Scale and came up with a formula for calculating the same. Physicist and futurist Michio Kaku suggested the number of years it would take the humans to attain Type I, II and III status if they consistently increased their energy consumption.Taking his study further, in this paper, based on time series algorithm, using such statistical tools as linear regression we try to calculate the year in which earth will attain Type I status. It was found that earth would reach Kardashev’s Type 1 status in 327 years’ time